NFL Week 8 Picks

Been busy at work lately so not had time to do a lot on the blog. Here's my picks for today's games:

Houston @ Tennessee
Houston +3
1 unit @ 1.953

Jacksonville @ Philadelphia
Philadelphia -6
1 unit @ 1.85

San Francisco @ Chicago
San Francisco +16.5
1 unit @ 1.90

Arizona @ Green Bay
Green Bay -3
1 unit @ 1.80

Baltimore @ New Orleans
New Orleans -2
1 unit @ 1.87

NY Jets @ Cleveland
NY Jets +2
1 unit @ 1.96

Indianapolis @ Denver
Indianapolis +2.5
3 units @ 2.1

New England @ Minnesota
New England -2.5
1 unit @ 1.962

NFL Week 7 Picks

YTD 21-13-4, +13 units

San Diego @ Kansas City
San Diego -5
1 unit @ 1.971
Two very contrasting weeks for these teams last week. The Chargers had 421 yards of total offense while the Chiefs gave up 457, it's most in 27 years. Phillip Rivers is looking like the real deal now that hes finally been allowed to make some throws and should lead his team to a road win here.

New England @ Buffalo
New England -5
1 unit @ 1.943
The Patriots should be fresh coming off their bye which will have allowed Brady to develop relationships with his new receivers. The Bills offense is looking worse by the week with turnovers becomming common and i don't think this game will be as close as the opening week meeting where they only lost on a safety.

Green Bay @ Miami
Green Bay +5
2 units @ 1.990
The Dolphins are the only team that are winless against the spread and i don't see them breaking that trend this week against the Packers. Green Bay should have Ahman Green back this week which will boost the running game and take pressure off Favre. Harrington will start again at QB for the Dolphins but has been unimpressive so far with 1 TD and 4 interceptions in losing his two starts.

Detroit @ NY Jets
Detroit +3.5
1 unit @ 2.01
I like the Lions to build off last weeks win and get another one here on the road. The Jets have the third worst defense in the league which should be picked apart by the Lions 15th ranked offense. We all know about the Lions ariel game but last week they were effective on the ground as well with Kevin Jones posting his first 100 yard game of the season. The Jets are 3-3 and their wins have all been close games. This will be another close one and i like Detroit plus the points.

Minnesota @ Seattle
Seattle -6.5
1 unit @ 1.962
Seattle were lucky to get the win last week but should be more comfortable at home here against the Vikings who are coming off their bye. Deion Branch now looks firmly established in the Seahawks offense and should be the go to guy for Matt Hasselbeck. Minnesota have surprised a few people this season and come in with a 3-2 record with running back Chester Taylor putting up some good numbers. If he can be stopped then the Seahawks should have too much and should cover.

Arizona @ Oakland
Arizona -3
2 units @ 1.893
The good things to come out of Monday night is that Matt Leinart looks more than capable of being a quarterback in the NFL and should be around for a long time and the Cardinas defense really stepped up and didn't allow a touchdown against the number 1 offense in the NFL. The Raiders are just awful and average a league low 10 points per game and will be lucky to win a game all season. If it wasn't for the fact that Arizona are having trouble running the ball i would have made this a 3 unit play. Hopefully Neil Rackers (pictured left) won't miss any important field goals like Monday night.

NY Giants @ Dallas
Under 45.5
2 units @ 1.952
I can see both these good defenses stepping up in this one and keeping the score down. This is a key division game which both teams would hate to lose so they'll be more cautious than normal. It's the second highest total on the board this week and i like the under.


All lines from Pinnacle correct at time of posting.

Midweek Update

Sorry about the lack of posts lately but i've been a bit busy. Well week 6 in the NFL proved to be a good one for me with Detroit getting their first win as predicted, the Giants looking very good in their win at the Georgia Dome, the Jets just hanging on to beat Miami and the Monday Night game going over thanks to the Bears D in one of the most dramatic fourth quarters in a long while. My only loss was the Eagles who seemed to suffer a bit of a comedown this week after all the T.O. hoopla the previous week.
That all added up to a 4-1, +3.59 units week to leave my YTD looking very healthy at 21-13-4 for a profit of +13 units.
Looking at this weeks lines i like a lot of games and will probably have 8 selections for you all tomorrow.

The golf offering was pretty poor last weekend so i didn't get involved. This week's Funai Classic looks better so hopefully i'll be able to find some betting opportunities.

NFL Week 6 Picks

YTD 17-12-4, +9.5 units

Last week i continued my trend of winning in the odd number weeks, but this week i'm hoping to break my trend of losing in the even number weeks with the following plays:

Buffalo @ Detroit
Detroit +1
1 unit @ 1.980
Detroit are not a 0-5 team and could easily be 4-1 now if things had gone a little different. I like them to get their first win of the season here in a close one.

NY Giants @ Atlanta
NY Giants +3
1 unit @ 1.926
The Giants looked back on track last week against the Redskins and i like them to continue that momentum this week in Atlanta. The Giants D only allowed Washington 164 total yards last week and if they can repeat that performance and stop the Falcons running game and force Vick to throw then they should be looking at a win in the Georgia Dome.

Philadelphia @ New Orleans
Philadelphia -3
2 units @ 1.952 (I got this line earlier in the week and you'll have to shop around to get -3 at the best price now)
Should be a good game with both teams 4-1 but i think the Eagles will just have too much for the resurgent Saints. The Eagles have won their two road games this season by 14 points both times although the Saints will pose a tougher test than Houston and the 49ers did. Home field advantage is usually worth 3 points but the Superdome is probably worth about 5 to the Saints. That being said i still rate the Eagles better than the Saints by about 10 points and think they'll cover the spread of 3.

Miami @ NY Jets
NY Jets -1
2 units @ 1.862
The Dolphins are plain awful and Joey Harrington won't change that. Okay the Jets aren't great and are a little banged up this week going by their injury report but should still be able to handle Miami at home giving only 1 point. Forget last weeks performance against the Jags and remember their performance against the Colts the week before where they were unlucky to lose.

Chicago @ Arizona
Over 38
2 units @ 1.980
Two good offenses and one bad defense should make for a lot of points on Monday night. Grossman has 10 TD passes which is only one behind league leader Donovan McNabb. Matt Leinart will make his second start for the Cards after looking quite good in last weeks 20-23 loss Kansas City completing 22 of 35 passes and 2 TDs.

Gary Neville's Own Goal

So yesterday i went 2-2 in the Euro 2008 Qualifying matches with Germany and Slovakia winning easily, the Czechs only drawing and France scoring 3 in the last 15 minutes to cost me half a bet. I did however end up in profit with a win of +0.65 units which is better than nothing. But the funniest thing from yesterday's matches was England's woeful performance in Croatia and this classic own goal by Gary Neville. Couldn't have happended to a nicer person!

Weekend Round Up & Euro 2008 Qualifying

To round up the weekends action i'll first start with Friday's 2 balls where i went against one of my unwritten rules where i backed the same 3 ball on both Friday and Thursday. Needless to say i didn't win it the second time which is why i should really stick to my rules.

As expected i had a very good weekend in the NFL going 6-1-2 and made a good bet change after seeing the weather report prior to Monday night's game.

So today sees another round of Euro 2008 qualifying matches and i have picked 4 games to bet on:

Republic of Ireland v Czech Republic
Czech Republic -0.5
1 unit @ 2.06

Slovakia v Germany
Germany -0.5
1 unit @ 2.08

Ukraine v Scotland
Ukraine -0.5
1 unit @ 2.11
I think it will be a case of after the lord mayors show for the Scots following their shock result against France on Saturday and i think it will be back to their usual poor form today.

France v Faroe Islands
Faroe Islands +4.5 & +5
0.5 units @ 2.24

I have also been enjoying a profitable few weeks betting against Swedish 2nd division side Assyriska who are an all-muslim, all-Syrian immigrant team made up of car plant workers in a Stockholm suburb. Very observant Sunnis, the late afternoon kickoffs pose huge problems for Assyriska in the month of Ramadam as the players have not eaten or drank since Sunrise and do not take on water during play nor at halftime.
They went 0-3 during Ramadam (which i'm sorry to say is over now) as they did last season. Many thanks to Shawn for putting me on to this one.

MNF Bet Change

Okay, so it's freezing, and there's a chance of snow tonight in Denver therefore we're going to change this bet to under 34.5 points for 2 units. Let's hope i haven't second guessed myself. I also like Denver -3.5 for 1 unit. The game kicks in about 20 minutes.

Friday 2 Balls - Part 2

Landed both this morning's 2 ball bets at the Dunhill with Dredge outscoring Tadini -4 to +2 and Broadhurst beating Pilkadaris -2 to +2.

For this afternoon at the Chrysler i'm going to repeat one of my bets from yesterday and that's Rollins to get the better of Daly and Tataurangi. Yesterday the scores were -8, E and +9 respectively and i think Rollins can win again today. Stake 1 unit @ 1.80 on Betfair.